Why the War in Ukraine May Not Deter China

China's leaders observe Russia's woes in Ukraine but will they be deterred from an attack on Taiwan? The US and allies fear the worst.

Why the War in Ukraine May Not Deter China
  • China's leaders are watching Russia's failings in the Ukraine war with concern.
  • The question is whether China will be deterred or learn from Russia's tactical mistakes.
  • A military confrontation over Taiwan would likely involve the US and could result in staggering losses.
  • Despite PLA's modernization, nobody knows how it would perform on the battlefield.
  • The Ukraine war has massively increased strategic ambiguity about what could happen if China were to invade Taiwan.
Why the War in Ukraine May Not Deter China
U.S. strategists hope that Russia’s failures and the strong response from the West will give Beijing second thoughts about attacking Taiwan. But Xi Jinping could be drawing different lessons.