Why the Recession Is Always Six Months Away

The next economic downturn has become the most anticipated recession in recent U.S. history. Recent strong hiring and consumer spending are the latest evidence that the pandemic and the unprecedented policy measures that followed are interfering with the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation.

March 6, 2023 . 8:49 PM

1 min read

The next economic downturn has become the most anticipated recession in recent U.S. history.
Recent strong hiring and consumer spending are the latest evidence that the pandemic and the unprecedented policy measures that followed are interfering with the Federal Reserve’s campaign to tame inflation.
The Fed has been trying to slow investment, spending and hiring to combat inflation by raising rates.
Washington’s reaction to the initial shock of Covid-19 in March 2020, including holding interest rates at very low levels and showering the economy with cash, left household, business, and local government finances in unusually strong shape.
U.S. consumers, throwing off their pandemic caution, have ramped up spending on services that require lots of workers.