- US negotiators agree to a tentative deal to resolve debt crisis, sparking global relief rally.
- US dollar in focus as trading begins with liquidity set to be thin due to US and UK markets being closed.
- Deal appears well-balanced between reducing spending while not jeopardizing growth, likely to be positive for US Treasuries.
- Even when flirting with default, investors have little choice but to flock to dollar-denominated assets for protection.
- Costs of weeks of political wrangling have already taken a toll on the US Treasury.
Central banks around the world are pausing tightening campaigns as inflation eases and economies slow. Inflation-targeting regimes are keeping their own houses in order, while the US Fed's key inflation gauges fell to the slowest annual paces since late 2021.
Two massive earthquakes on Monday have devastated cities and towns across Turkey and Syria, with death toll of over 16,000. This is one of the worst natural disasters this century, alongside the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, 2010 Haiti earthquake and 2008 Cyclone Nargis.
A raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world's top central banks will navigate the way ahead, including the hotly debated "no landing" scenario. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders, home prices, manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expec