- Western companies are worried about US policies to limit US chip sales to China, which threatens the tech industry.
- German exports to China have dropped 11.3% from the previous year, suggesting that the Chinese market may not be as big as expected.
- The long-term headwinds to China's growth are making themselves felt, and its growth may not outgrow the US's in the future.
- Western companies' dependence on the Chinese market can take different forms: exporting to China, producing in China for sale to that market, and technology.
- To reduce geopolitical dependency, there should be a clearer separation between the legal entities of big western companies' China-based and home operations with strict transparency and publicity requirements.
Central banks around the world are pausing tightening campaigns as inflation eases and economies slow. Inflation-targeting regimes are keeping their own houses in order, while the US Fed's key inflation gauges fell to the slowest annual paces since late 2021.
Two massive earthquakes on Monday have devastated cities and towns across Turkey and Syria, with death toll of over 16,000. This is one of the worst natural disasters this century, alongside the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, 2010 Haiti earthquake and 2008 Cyclone Nargis.
A raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world's top central banks will navigate the way ahead, including the hotly debated "no landing" scenario. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders, home prices, manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expec