- Economists who believe US can avoid recession are feeling hopeful as the unemployment rate remains low and consumers continue to spend.
- Auto sales surged in April, retail sales posted gains and factory production picked up.
- Inflation slowed down and services prices rose at the slowest pace in nine months.
- Majority of forecasters still expect a recession, but some are rethinking the timing.
- Household balance sheets are starting to show early signs of strain, which could make next year more challenging.
Central banks around the world are pausing tightening campaigns as inflation eases and economies slow. Inflation-targeting regimes are keeping their own houses in order, while the US Fed's key inflation gauges fell to the slowest annual paces since late 2021.
Two massive earthquakes on Monday have devastated cities and towns across Turkey and Syria, with death toll of over 16,000. This is one of the worst natural disasters this century, alongside the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, 2010 Haiti earthquake and 2008 Cyclone Nargis.
A raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world's top central banks will navigate the way ahead, including the hotly debated "no landing" scenario. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders, home prices, manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expec