- Chancellor Jeremy Hunt has a good chance of unveiling pre-election giveaways by the autumn.
- Office for Budget Responsibility's prediction is more optimistic than Bank of England's.
- Hunt chose to give companies more generous capital allowances and provide well-off with enhanced pension tax relief.
- Hunt met his own fiscal rule with just £6.5bn leeway, meaning his new capital allowances for companies are temporary.
- The constraint from his own debt rule will probably disappear in the autumn, giving the chancellor significant scope for future giveaways.
Central banks around the world are pausing tightening campaigns as inflation eases and economies slow. Inflation-targeting regimes are keeping their own houses in order, while the US Fed's key inflation gauges fell to the slowest annual paces since late 2021.
Two massive earthquakes on Monday have devastated cities and towns across Turkey and Syria, with death toll of over 16,000. This is one of the worst natural disasters this century, alongside the 2004 Sumatran Tsunami, 2010 Haiti earthquake and 2008 Cyclone Nargis.
A raft of U.S. data and European inflation numbers will give guidance on how the world's top central banks will navigate the way ahead, including the hotly debated "no landing" scenario. Reports on U.S. durable goods orders, home prices, manufacturing and consumer confidence threaten to cement expec