- Economists are more divided than usual on the future, making it a hard time to put money to work.
- Signals from the economy have been unsettling for forecasters, with a high for growth in two years of 2.2% and a low that would see a 0.7% shrinkage.
- Volatility has been rising since the start of February, with the ICE BofA MOVE index, a gauge of implied volatility in bonds, up sharply.
- For investors trying to build a portfolio, the danger is the risk of extreme outcomes, with traders pricing less than a 50% probability of inflation.
- For investors, the best strategy is to diversify, take a view, and consider scenario planning.
How to Invest in These Very Confusing Times
There’s no perfect way to tackle this problem, but there are broad choices for investors to make
James Mackintosh
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