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Economy — Recession — Opinion — Monetary Policy — Inflation — Interest Rates

Has a Recession Been Postponed? Jobs Data May Tell

Has a Recession Been Postponed? Jobs Data May Tell: Yield curve has been foolproof in predicting recessions but usually not inverted by the time recession begins. Market suggests recession onset in August 2025 due to high inflation. LEI peaks and starts to fall before recession, but lead time has le

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  • Yield curve has been foolproof in predicting recessions but usually not inverted by the time recession begins.
  • Market suggests recession onset in August 2025 due to high inflation.
  • LEI peaks and starts to fall before recession, but lead time has lengthened.
  • Profit margins have historically been driven by struggle between capital and labor.
  • JOLTS show more than 10 million job vacancies, but construction vacancies plummet.
Has a Recession Been Postponed? Jobs Data May Tell
With the US labor market still robust, indicators attempting to work out the timing of a recession abound. Meanwhile, China’s post Covid-Zero stock rally is running out of steam.
BloombergJohn Authers

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